Survival Analysis Methods to Predict Loss Rates in Credit Card Portfolios

Understanding risky behavior associated with a given cardholder is crucial in managing a successful portfolio in the credit lending industry. Measuring this risk is done at many different time points in the customer lifecycle. This paper explores constructing a model to accurately predict the risk of a cardholder for the lifetime of the account. First, a brief introduction to the customer lifecycle will take place. Next, the structure of the data and the issues associated with it will be discussed. After this, Survival Analysis methodologies will be overviewed and applied to a case study from CAPITAL Card Services. Next, an extension of the single event framework to account for multiple events will then be discussed. Finally, an application of these models to address problems that arise in the credit card industry will be examined

Session 5: \u3cem\u3eEquipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study in Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering\u3c/em\u3e

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it is integrated into our other systems for decision purposes. We will also talk about how the data is transformed from a raw, sometimes unstructured state, to something more usable by a data science team – and demonstrate how this data was harnessed to help guide model enhancements as key opportunity areas have been identified

An Intervention to Improve the Evaluation of Clerkship Students

Background: Effective feedback is an important part of formative evaluation of clerkship students, improving student performance by increasing awareness to weaknesses and strengths. Aim: The aim of this study was to obtain more helpful feedback. Setting: Internal Medicine third year clerkship rotation at Joan C Edwards School of Medicine, Huntington, WV. Participants: The Internal Medicine department has fifty-nine general and subspecialty faculty physicians. Program Description: We changed the structure of the existing feedback form by requesting written comments at the beginning and asking for specific strengths and areas for improvement, educated faculty, and gave them a milestones card. Three reviewers independently ranked written feedback according to a rubric. We compared the quantity of either helpful or unhelpful feedback obtained during the 2016 and 2017 academic years with that obtained in the first rotation of 2018-2019. Program Evaluation: With our intervention, helpful comments increased from 33.8% to 79.2%. A Kappa statistic revealed a lack of bias of the reviewers. Discussion: A small change in the evaluation form along with an educational intervention and milestones card improved the quantity of helpful feedback given to students in the Internal Medicine clerkship

Thresholds for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair in England and the United States.

Background Thresholds for repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms vary considerably among countries. Methods We examined differences between England and the United States in the frequency of aneurysm repair, the mean aneurysm diameter at the time of the procedure, and rates of aneurysm rupture and aneurysm-related death. Data on the frequency of repair of intact (nonruptured) abdominal aortic aneurysms, in-hospital mortality among patients who had undergone aneurysm repair, and rates of aneurysm rupture during the period from 2005 through 2012 were extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics database in England and the U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Data on the aneurysm diameter at the time of repair were extracted from the U.K. National Vascular Registry (2014 data) and from the U.S. National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2013 data). Aneurysm-related mortality during the period from 2005 through 2012 was determined from data obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.K. Office of National Statistics. Data were adjusted with the use of direct standardization or conditional logistic regression for differences between England and the United States with respect to population age and sex. Results During the period from 2005 through 2012, a total of 29,300 patients in England and 278,921 patients in the United States underwent repair of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms. Aneurysm repair was less common in England than in the United States (odds ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48 to 0.49; P<0.001), and aneurysm-related death was more common in England than in the United States (odds ratio, 3.60; 95% CI, 3.55 to 3.64; P<0.001). Hospitalization due to an aneurysm rupture occurred more frequently in England than in the United States (odds ratio, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.19 to 2.27; P<0.001), and the mean aneurysm diameter at the time of repair was larger in England (63.7 mm vs. 58.3 mm, P<0.001). Conclusions We found a lower rate of repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms and a larger mean aneurysm diameter at the time of repair in England than in the United States and lower rates of aneurysm rupture and aneurysm-related death in the United States than in England. (Funded by the Circulation Foundation and others.)

Are women positive for the One Step but negative for the Two Step screening tests for gestational diabetes at higher risk for adverse outcomes?

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to evaluate if women meeting criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) by the One Step test as per International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) criteria but not by other less strict criteria have adverse pregnancy outcomes compared with GDM-negative controls. The primary outcome was the incidence of macrosomia, defined as birthweight > 4000 g. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Electronic databases were searched from their inception until May 2017. All studies identifying pregnant women negative at the Two Step test, but positive at the One Step test for IADPSG criteria were included. We excluded studies that randomized women to the One Step vs. the Two Step tests; studies that compared different criteria within the same screening method; randomized studies comparing treatments for GDM; and studies comparing incidence of GDM in women doing the One Step test vs. the Two Step test. RESULTS: Eight retrospective cohort studies, including 29 983 women, were included. Five study groups and four control groups were identified. The heterogeneity between the studies was high. Gestational hypertension, preeclampsia and large for gestational age, as well as in some analyses cesarean delivery, macrosomia and preterm birth, were significantly more frequent, and small for gestational age in some analyses significantly less frequent, in women GDM-positive by the One Step, but not the Two Step. CONCLUSION: Women meeting criteria for GDM by IADPSG criteria but not by other less strict criteria have an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes such as gestational hypertension, preeclampsia and large for gestational age, compared with GDM-negative controls. Based on these findings, and evidence from other studies that treatment decreases these adverse outcomes, we suggest screening for GDM using the One Step IADPSG criteria

Concert recording 2022-10-12

[Track 1]. Sonata for four trombones / Georg Daniel Speer -- [Track 2]. Scarborough fair / traditional ; arr. Bill Reichenbach -- [Track 3]. Quartet for trombones / Leslie Bassett -- [Track 4]. You made me love you / James Monaco ; arr. Bill Holcombe -- [Track 5]. Fanfare for 8 trombones / Michael P. Terry -- [Track 6]. Andante cantabile from Symphony no. 5, Mtv. II / Pyort IIlich Tchaikovsky ; arr. Nolan Miller -- [Track 7]. Rising tide / Jack Wilds

Concert recording 2022-10-12

[Track 1]. Sonata for four trombones / Georg Daniel Speer -- [Track 2]. Scarborough fair / traditional ; arr. Bill Reichenbach -- [Track 3]. Quartet for trombones / Leslie Bassett -- [Track 4]. You made me love you / James Monaco ; arr. Bill Holcombe -- [Track 5]. Fanfare for 8 trombones / Michael P. Terry -- [Track 6]. Andante cantabile from Symphony no. 5, Mtv. II / Pyort IIlich Tchaikovsky ; arr. Nolan Miller -- [Track 7]. Rising tide / Jack Wilds

Relativity, rank and the utility of income

This is the accepted version of the following article: Rablen, M. D. (2008), Relativity, Rank and the Utility of Income. The Economic Journal, 118: 801–821, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02143.x/abstract.Relative utility has become an important concept in several disjoint areas of economics. I present a cardinal model of income utility based on the supposition that agents care about their rank in the income distribution and that utility is subject to adaptation over time. Utility levels correspond to the Leyden Individual Welfare Function while utility differences yield a version of the prospect theory value function, thereby providing a new and shared derivation of each. I offer an explanation of some long-standing paradoxes in the wellbeing literature and an insight into the links between relative comparisons and loss aversion.ESR

Concert recording 2019-11-20

[Track 1]. Quatour pour saxophones. I. Gaiete Villageoise / F. & M. Jeanjean -- [Track 2]. Memory from Nepomuk\u27s dances / Marcelo Zarvos -- [Track 3]. Quatour pour saxophones. II. Doloroso III. Spirituoso / P.M. Dubois -- [Track 4]. Danza 2016 / Lucky Chops -- [Track 5]. Howler back / Zack Browning -- [Track 6]. Dusk / Steven Bryant -- [Track 7]. Oileain reel / Craig Richards

Processing Aluminum Nitride-Silicon Carbide Composites via Polymer Infiltration and Pyrolysis of Polymethylsilane, a Precursor to Stoichiometric Silicon Carbide

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65973/1/j.1151-2916.1999.tb01846.x.pd